We identified a candidate set of models that included time trend and other predictor variables such as body length, % lipid content, season caught (Spring–Summer or Fall–Winter), location caught (northern, Alectinib central, or southern sections of Lake Michigan) and condition (a ratio of body

weight to body length where K = 100 (body weight in grams/length in cm3)). Body weight was not available for all individuals, so we first fit models without condition as a predictor using the full datasets. We then used a smaller dataset without missing values for condition to compare the best-fitting models from the first step with additional models that included condition as a predictor. Gender of fish was not determined for many individuals and we did not include it as a factor in models. We used the Akaike

Information Criterion (AIC) to select among models, with the best model having the minimum AIC among the models (Burnham and Anderson, 2002). The AIC includes a Selleck Bortezomib penalty determined by the number of parameters in the model, which prevents overfitting. A general rule of thumb is that models within 2 AIC units of the minimum AIC fit equally well (Burnham and Anderson, 2002). We examined in greater detail the best models as selected by AIC, using plots of residuals against predicted values and examination of influential observations. After identifying the model with lowest AIC among our candidate set of models, we examined additional models that included interactions among the

main effects included in that best-fitting model. All analyses were conducted using R (R Development Core Team, 2011). Chinook (n = 765) and coho (n = 393) salmon collected for PCB determination from 1975 to 2010 ranged in size, weight, and lipid content (Table 1). Out of the 36 year time period, Orotidine 5′-phosphate decarboxylase chinook and coho were collected in 29 and 22 years, respectively. The number of individuals collected per year of sampling ranged from 1 to 180 for chinook and 1 to 81 for coho. The most heavily sampled year was 1985, coinciding with a program designed to evaluate the variability of PCBs in Lake Michigan salmonids (Masnado, 1987). Most samples were collected in the fall as the fish returned to tributaries for spawning but some sampling occurred in other months, typically using gill nets set in open water. Samples were collected from over 36 different locations, ranging from tributaries to offshore locations (Fig. 1). For our purposes we grouped collection locations into north, central and southern Michigan. Most chinook samples were collected from the central Michigan locations (42%) and northern Michigan (35%); most coho samples were collected from central Michigan (56%).